According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the result of greenhouse gas emissions would mean an average temperature increase in Asia of 3°C by 2050 and 5°C by 2080. How will this affect an agricultural country like India?

The Indian Agricultural Research Institute has stated that global climate change will cause the monsoon to be delayed and often uncertain. Agricultural productivity will be hit by severe drought and flooding , soil degradation and pest infestation (bugs thrive in the heat). Even allowing for adaptation options like shifting growing seasons for major crops, wheat yields could decline by as much as 28-68% and rice by 40%. The World Bank estimates that a temperature rise of 2-3°C will cause a 9-25% loss in farm revenues . This is borne out in J&K where over the last two decades, temperatures have already risen almost 2 °C, paddy fields have turned into arid stretches and food production has fallen by 40%. Fisheries would also suffer as breeding cycles undergo a drastic change, as also the food processing industry since increased temperatures would hamper food storage. More refrigeration would mean more greenhouse gases and more global warming—a terrible Catch 22 situation! All in all climate change could cost India a GDP decline of upto 9%.

With a population of over one billion people, India is among those most threatened by climate change. Receding Himalayan glaciers could jeopardize water supplies while rising sea levels menace the low lying, densely populated 6500 km Indian coastline as well as major cities like Mumbai and Kolkata, plus neighboring Bangladesh which may result in an influx of refugees into adjoining Meghalaya. A one meter rise in sea level could inundate 1700 sq km of prime agricultural land in Orissa and West Bengal. Already several islands in the Sundarbans are submerged, displacing thousands of people. Increased landslides and flooding is projected in Assam . Greenpeace predicts that seven million Indians will need relocation should global temperatures rise by even 2 °C. Another report showing that temperatures would rise more in Northern than Southern India, calculates that the yearly average of tropical disturbances in the North Indian Ocean could increase from 17 to 29 endangering 5760 sq km of land and 4,200 sq km of road.