Incidentally, the NDA swept all those eight Lok Sabha seats in the last year parliamentary election where the water of river Kosi wreaked havoc. But the parliamentary and assembly elections are different and the local issues figure more in the latter.

The campaigning threw up an interesting fact: neither the devastation of such a proportion nor development could become a big election issue.

 However, what surprises many in the media is the big jump––by almost 10 per cent––in the first phase of poll. Different political parties are talking big. While both the NDA and RJD-LJP camp claimed that they would grab 40-odd seats the Congress said that the result would be unexpected.  

 However, there is no dearth of political analysts who have jump to the conclusion that high turn-out means that incumbency factor is playing its role. But the things are not so simple either. Sometimes polarization from both sides also increases the voting percentage. In this region of strong Yadav, Muslim, Dalit and Extremely Backward Castes presence such polarization can not be ruled out too.

 Some others, like the LJP leader Ram Vilas Paswan, attributes high percentage to good weather condition too. He said that in the last Lok Sabha election a large number of people did not turn out as it was too hot. 

Besides, many migrant voters stayed for a few extra day in their native places after Durga Puja to exercise their adult franchise.

 Whatever be the argument the party or combination, which establishes edge in the first phase is likely to get psychological advantage in the next five phases. It would certainly prove a trend-setter.

 Though this phase is very crucial for the chief minister, Nitish Kumar, RJD  and LJP bosses Lalu Prasad Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan respectively there are many others who are fighting the battle for their survival.

 Three ministers in the Nitish Kumar cabinet: water resources minister, Bijendra Yadav, land revenue minister, Narendra Narayan Yadav and agriculture minister, Renu Kumari Kushwaha are facing tough challenges from their political rivals.

 For Bijendra, who contested from Supaul, the election is a litmus test of his popularity after the Kosi breach, which took place only a few kilometers from his constituency. As the water resources minister he had to face a lot of uncomfortable questions during the electioneering.  

 Nitish Mishra was the disaster management minister in the Nitish Kumar cabinet. He is also contesting election on Janata Dal (United) ticket. Though Mishra resigned from the cabinet a few weeks after the Kosi disaster, he has now mended his fences with the chief minister. His father the three time chief minister, Dr Jagannath Mishra, once a bitter critic of Nitish Kumar, is now working for him.

 Former MP Ranjeeta Ranjan, wife of Pappu Yadav, now in jail contested on the Congress ticket so is Lovely Anand, spouse of another jailed strongman, Anand Mohan Singh.

 Though the former Union minister Taslimuddin was denied the Janata Dal (United) ticket, possibly under pressure from the BJP, the fate of his son and two of his relatives were sealed in the ballot boxes on Thursday. A defeat for his son at this juncture would mean the end of father’s political career and the victory his revival.

 The president of the Bihar Pradesh Congress Committee, Chaudhary Mehboob Ali Qaiser, was locked in a multi-cornered contest from Simri Bakhtiarpur in Saharsa district. RJD’s young leader and sitting MLA, Akhtar-ul-Iman, had thrown his hat and is the party’s candidate from Kocha Daman in Kishanganj district. If Taslimuddin loses and he wins he may emerge as an undisputed young Muslim leader of the region. Being a Surjapuri he enjoys strong support of his castemen.

 The Nationalist Congress Party is also in the fray. Former Katihar MP, Tariq Anwar, is very much there to spoil the party of many.

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