The opinion poll gives 170 seats to Nitish Kumar-led NDA and only 34 to the RJD-LJP combine. It predicts five per cent increase in votes to the NDA from 2005 and 10 per cent further fall in the RJD-LJP combine.

So far so good. The problem lies in the break up given by the Star News poll survey. It says that the Janata Dal (United) will alone win 120-odd seats while the BJP, only 50. This prediction is causing great amount of concern in the BJP rank and file as the half-way mark in the Bihar assembly is just 122. In that case the Janata Dal (United) may snap its ties with the BJP and like Naveen Patnaik in Orissa go it alone. Getting support from a couple of Independent or smaller party MLAs is quite easy.

Political observers are of the view that even if the Janata Dal (United) wins 110 or less seats it can manage to form government on its own by seeking support of other parties. An alliance with the Congress can not be ruled out in the future.

However, some Bihar watchers are disputing the result of the survey. They said that it is likely that the NDA may return to power, but to say that it would win 170 seats is sheer exaggeration. Besides, how can one single party win 85 per cent of seat it contests. After all the Janata Dal (United) is contesting only 141 seat while the BJP 102. How can it be that the former win 120 out of 141 and the BJP not even half of what it contests, that is 50 out of 102.

The BJP is after all a cadre based party and its workers can manage vote in a much better way than the Janata Dal (United). And if the impact of Ntiish Kumar and development is so strong why will it influence only one partner while the second does not get even 50 per cent seats.

Even in the assembly election held three months after the 1977 Lok Sabha poll (after Emergency) the then Janata Party got only 214 out of 324 seats––which is certainly not 85 per cent. The wave in favour of one particular party is not so strong today.

Analysts strongly suspect some game in the survey. The result was manipulated in such a way, and that too just before the first phase of the poll, that Muslims do not hesitate in giving vote to the Janata Dal (United). They say that if the BJP gets less than 50 per cent seats than the Janata Dal (United) too would get the same amount, may be even less. By that yardstick it may end up winning 70 or less seats. Thus both the BJP and Janata Dal (United) may jointly end up getting around 120 seats and with the support of some smaller parties or Independent may form government.

However, an analyst, who wished not to be quoted told BiharTimes as to what will happen if the NDA comes to power with the BJP winning a couple of more seats than the Janata Dal (United)? Will it marginalize Nitish Kumar in the longer run?

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