Surprisingly, the RJD and Congress, which were both down in the dumps till a few months back, have managed to attract a lot of leaders, who have considerable influence on their respective castes. The ruling Janata Dal (United) too won over quite a few big shots such as Taslimuddin in July this year and Upendra Kushwaha and Shyam Rajak, last year. Both RJD and Janata Dal (United) welcomed sitting MLAs from rival parties into their respective folds. But as the election date nears the flow into the Janata Dal (United) has slowed down. In the last few months it also lost men like Lallan Singh, Prabhunath Singh and late Digvijay Singh, not to mention of a number of other very influential leaders.

Prabhunath might have lost the last year Lok Sabha election by a slender margin yet he is still considered as an influential leader of the Rajput caste. But Lallan, who is technically still a Janata Dal (United) MP, and Digvijay left the Janata Dal (United) at the peak of its popularity and can not be compared with Shyam Rajak and Taslimuddin, who crossed over after suffering humiliating defeat in the parliamentary election in 2009.

Similarly, the two brother-in-laws of RJD chief Lalu Yadav, deserted the party only when they were denied tickets. Sadhu Yadav joined the Congress last year while younger brother Subhash is knocking at the door.

But the scene in the other two relatively minor players––the Bharatiya Janata Party and Lok Janshakti Party is quite different. Calling BJP a minor player in Bihar politics would not be just, yet today this is a fact. It was the saffron party, which nurtured and promoted Nitish Kumar, who was in his political wilderness after the 1995 assembly election when his Samata Party won only seven seats in the House of 324 it contested in the then undivided Bihar.

But as it allowed Nitish, a backward caste leader to grow in stature and counter Lalu, the BJP in the process left too much space for him. Today Nitish has virtually taken over the saffron party, which is mired in the worst type of infighting. Thus it is nobody’s choice now. The only significant leader to join the party recently is former Sikta MLA, Dilip Verma, who simply made a homecoming.

Similarly, the LJP of Ram Vilas Paswan is no more a magnet for any significant Dalit leader. The party’s humiliating defeat in the 2005 assembly election and again in 2009 Lok Sabha election––even Ram Vilas lost his seat––has completely decimated its organization. True, it still has some pockets of influence yet it is not enough to lure leaders from different sections of the society.

It is often observed in politics that the senior partner in the alliance normally eats up the support base of the junior partner. While––thanks to Lalu phobia––the BJP, in a way, allowed itself to be eaten up by the Janata Dal (United) the Lok Janshakti Party, was an outfit with a limited social base. Its leader, Ram Vilas Paswan, lost his credibility because of frequent change in stand. He had been both in the NDA and UPA and now is strongly behind Lalu Yadav. So in this situation the fence-sitters and migratory birds prefer to join the party, which has more say and influence rather than the one, which love to play second fiddle, and that too willingly.

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