However, this development is being watched curiously by none else but the alliance partner the BJP too.While Ram Bachan Rai, as an RJD MLC was finding it difficult to get elected to the Upper House of the state Assembly as his party’s strength has come down considerably now––from 55 to 22 legislators––his decision seems to be understandable.

The story of Shakeel Ahmed Khan is all too pathetic. After losing the Assembly election from Sherghatty last November he was, rightly or wrongly, feeling cheated by Yadavs as a sizeable number of them voted for the Janata Dal (United) candidate of the same caste. But the truth is that as a Muslim candidate of the RJD Shakeel failed to get the entire Muslim votes too, obviously because there were more than one candidates from the community in the field.

So the best option for him was to look for greener pasture elsewhere. No other party than the Janata Dal (United)––the party which he used to literally hate––was best suited for this purpose. He may now be interested to get a berth in the Council, where 23 seats are going to be vacated next year.

But what alarms the BJP, in particular, is the move by the Janata Dal (United) to win over opposition MLAs, who have managed to win after so much struggle last year. While Janata Dal (United) won 115 the BJP bagged 91 seats in the last October-November election.

A few days back the Janata Dal (United) got a bonus in the form of lone JMM MLA joining it. He is none else but Sumit Singh, son of Narendra Singh, minister in the Nitish cabinet. One of his sons had already won on the Janata Dal (United) ticket. Narendra wanted to get ticket for another son too. Yet another son (now late) Abhay Singh was also an MLA till he shoot himself to death in February 2010.

So Narender got Sumit elected on the JMM ticket and through it joined the Janata Dal (United). Interestingly, he defeated Phaguni Ram of the BJP, the man with whom Narendra had a running feud in Jamui district.

Now with 116 MLAs the Janata Dal (United) is just six short of majority on his own. So any effort to break three-member LJP legislature party would made the task easier. The LJP has hardly any existence in Bihar now and it would be the best party to poach.

Now even if the ruling Janata Dal (United) fails to break two-thirds of the RJD’s 22 MLAs, it can win over five other independent/smaller parties’ MLAs easily to come to majority on its own.

Besides, grapevine had it that a few RJD MLAs may quit the party even when it cost them their Assembly seats. They are prepared to contest by-election on the Janata Dal (United) to once again enter the Assembly.

But some of them are watchful as Shyam Rajak did the same in 2009 but he lost the by-election to Phulwari seat in September of the same year. However, Rajak managed to win the Assembly election in 2010.

What comes as a surprise is that all these unseasonal migration are taking place when in the post-BIADA storm the graph of the government has gone down and when there is no election round the corner.

Those who have crossed over or are planning to do so are well aware of the facts that Nitish has lost a lot of goodwill in recent months. Yet what they also know is that that the situation within their own respective parties––RJD, LJP or even for that matter the Congress––is not at all better.

However, the BJP is looking all these developments quite differently. If the Janata Dal (United) gets the magic figure of 122 out of 243 in the House on its own the BJP would become less relevant for it. In that case Nitish may twist its arms even more. With parliamentary election in 2014 he may even compel the BJP to project him for a much better role in the days to come. Or face the consequences.

Comment

comments...

Nitish Kumar is rising sun. He is emerging all time best C.M. of Bihar. One thing he should always remember that the BJP is using his shoulder to climb high. Which he should never allow; He should get rid of the BJP alliance as soon as possible. He should soften one corner with central government of Congress Party. The reason, central government support is crucial for the development of Bihar. And his popularity is linked with the progress and prosperity of Bihar.
Obviously JD(U) is not going to gain anything from BJP. In fact BJP will certainly get stronger with the time, and that also by weakening the JD(U). Hence, he has to get rid of BJP as soon as possible.
Haider

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Nitish knows his strength and credibility in Bihar. What magic he did when he was with Laloo, Nothing except sabotaging RJD and formed JDU. Same thing he will do with BJP but he knows that BJP has national presence and having credibility among the people of India and particularly in Bihar. BJP has its cadre vote where as JDU is bunch of opportunist who can jump the ship anytime for greener pasture.

Nitish might try to bully BJP after getting single majority but he even knows that those who have joined him can sell their morale to Congress for the sake of money as well. Nitish can not afford to break the alliance with BJP. If he does then he will have no choice but to be slave to UPA and again pave way for RJD.. He has no guts to stand alone…

Sunil Kumar
Malaysia

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With no opposition to worry about, Nitish all concentration is on BJP and its move. It is playing with BJP now. Writer has rightly guessed Nitish future move.

Nitish has done some good work in Bihar and he should be projected by NDA as their PM candidate for 2014. It was because of Nitish, BJP tally improved considerably. Even BJP most optimistic leaders were not hoping to this big number, infact they were bracing for lesser tally.. Talk to any one in Bihar, they say they voted for Nitish. Even minorities voted for BJP just to keep Nitish in power. No doubt about it.

Nitish for 2014. Only Nitish as PM can give Bihar what it deserve and make it developed state in 5 years time.

Anne Onime

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This is irrationaly predictable analysis. Same idle political pundits came with this possibility even during last election. Nitish got his worth checked through internal poll. Fact is Nitish benefits more from association with BJP than BJP does from association with Nitish. Nitish's minority vote is not transferaable fully to BJP but BJP's vote bank is fully transferrable to JD(U) candidates in case of alliance. Nitish knows it better than anyone else.
My earnest advice please think of something original. Same trite irrationality being packaged in new headlines again and again is not becoming for any serious political analyst.

Anil

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Changing of party like women changing sarees frequently is not new phenomenon in Bihar! Almost all parties indulged in this nefarious games, violating Anti-defection law and its rules But RJD leader Laloo Prasad Yadav while in Janata Party and subsequently dal had given seals of after seals in changing and encouraging legislators in defecting from one party to others and he got tremendous success in consolidating his position during his last 15 years rule by him and his wife Rabari Devi. It is only because of Laloo's nefarious design , the left parties have weakened in Bihar and at the same opposition presently bacame so weak in Bihar to have a check and balance on Nitish govt!After the situation changed and Nitish, the present chief minister of Bihar, rising on his so called popularity wave, adopted same tactics to reply Laloo , Ram Bilas and other party leaders in the same coins. But Nitish's seasoned and reasoned political move in encouraging allegedly defection among legislators to change sides in favour of JD(U) has reportedly centred to his ambitions to become the prime mnister of India! In oblique tone and tenure, Nitish is giving clear signal to his major alliance partner-BJP that it should to toe his line! Nitish was instrumental in getting maximum number of BJP leaders victory as MLAs in the last assembly election and because of that BJP got tremendous success in the election and also in north , eastern and central India!BJP in Bihar scores new height in increasing its seats in Bihar Assembly because of Nitish popularity wave and also Nitish's good work in his first govt of five years to some extend. Not only that BJP leaders, legislators, ministers, central leadership look upon Nitish for broader base of NDA , particularly BJP in north and eastern india states! Now the situation has come such a pass that BJP men look more serious to Nitish than their party in Bihar and central leaders! Nitish is even competent to engineer defection in his alliance party-BJP to give signal the party that they should forget Narendra Modi and stop projecting him as prime ministerial candidate or any other leaders of BJP. Practically Nitish is imposing his views on BJP to have field day in Bihar politicsand governance. BJP leaders, ministers, legislators, instead of bending has started crawling before Nitish in Bihar.It appears that Nitish has started thinking that BJP may be his number one enemy in days to come for maintaining his secular image as well as his prime ministereial aspiration! Taking into infighting going on in the BJP leadership from Patna to entire country and central leadership, the BJP also appears a divided lot to support Narendra Modi or any other central leaders of the party as prime ministerial candidate. In this game BJP senior leader L K Advani, who appears "gave up his aspiration to become prime minister", may also tilt his balance in favour of Nitish because of so many compulsions. Another senior leader of BJP, Arun Jaitely, having no grass root support base, is also said to be very close to Nitish and one of his trusted lieutenant in the BJP from Bihar,and a legislator has become shadow of Nitish on the tacit support of Jaitely and because of his so many extra-carricular activities, the said BJP legislator has become a conscience keeper of Nitish ! He has replaced many other leaders, once very very close Nitish and looks after evn the minute details of Chief minister residence and his comfort, according to the 1, Anney Marg sources, who did not want to be identified.
K K Singh, Senior journalist, Patna blog www.kksingh1.blogspot.com,