In the meantime came the statement of the president of Janata Dal (United), Sharad Yadav, who incidentally is also the convenor of the National Democratic Alliance. He told supporters in Kolkata at the ninth West Bengal conference of Janata Dal (United) that his party would like to have an alliance with Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress.
Apparently the two statements may be at variance with each other, but there is a view that Nitish Kumar’s change in stance has something to do with the pre-election bargaining. After all a local Janata Dal (United) leader was quoted in a newspaper as saying that his party wants to contest at least 10 seats in alliance with the Trinamool Congress as there is no NDA in West Bengal.
But the problem is that many West Bengal Trinamool leaders have no idea about any such alliance and said that all depends on Mamata Banerjee. The Congress leadership too are alarmed at any such prospect as first the Rashtriya Janata Dal and now the Janata Dal (United) have played a key role in virtual decimation of the party in neighbouring Bihar.
Union minister Mukul Roy of Trinamool was quoted in a newspaper as saying that “I have to find out what they (Janata Dal United) have to say.”
Though the Janata Dal (United) leaders in West Bengal are making tall claims about the rise in influence of the party in West Bengal, especially after the result of the last year’s Assembly election in Bihar, yet the truth is that even Lalu Yadav’s RJD, at its peak, used to over-estimate its strength in West Bengal. Political observers are of the view that when the wave is so much anti-Left and Mamata Banerjee is not so much bothered about Congress––she is offering less than 45 seats against its demand of 98––why will it leave 10 seats for Janata Dal (United).
Migrant Bihari voters may have some soft corner for Nitish but this is not going to translate into votes. Even Delhi has huge Bihari population yet none of the regional party from Bihar ever managed to win more than a couple of seats. All this because the social combination of migrant Biharis in those places are totally different from Bihar. Thus those living in Kolkata are bound to vote for Mamata’s outfit if they want to neutralize the Left. In that way Trinamool is not too much bothered about Nitish factor in that state.
Some Trinamool leaders may be inclined to invite Nitish for the campaign and go in alliance with his party yet the problem is that Mamata’s outfit is in the United Progressive Alliance and can not cross over to join hands with the party which is so close to the BJP––in fact the oldest secular alliance of the saffron brigade. After all Trinamool has suffered much by joining hands with the NDA in the past as minority votes turned away from her, especially after 2002 Gujarat riots.
But there is no denying the fact that Mamata is politically unpredictable. In 2001 she left the NDA and join hands with the Congress to contest West Bengal Assembly election. She even shared platform with the Congress president, Sonia Gandhi. After the rout of Congress-Trinamool alliance she once again went to join hands with the NDA.
Defeats in 2004 and 2006 Lok Sabha and Assembly elections made Trinamool wiser and it once again join hands with the Congress and did very well in 2009 parliamentary election. Mamata came back to become the cabinet minister but now in the UPA cabinet.
However, her releationship with the Congress is not always good either. A couple of years back the Congress joined hands with the Left after the urban local bodies election in Siliguri. The alliance with the Congress did not work in the civic poll held for Kolkata Municipal Corporation. In that way nothing can be ruled out in West Bengal.
However, observers feel, that if Mamata really leaves some seats for the Janata Dal (United) she may be doing so at the cost of the goodwill of the Congress. They are of the view that any such adventure would have been acceptable had her position not been comfortable. Why will she bother for Nitish for no big gain.
However, such possibility could not be ruled out either as Nitish too may have the future plan to abandon the BJP and join hands with powerful regional satraps. But at present all these are mere the media speculations.

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