Patna,(BiharTimes): With the Assembly election nine months from now the political situation is extremely fluid in Bihar.Almost all the political parties, be it the ruling or the opposition, are unable to draw their strategy. The bigger the party in the state Assembly, the bigger is the challenge before them.

The Manjhi-Nitish ‘tamasha’ has literally divided the Janata Dal (United) rank and file with the party leadership unable to decide what step should it take. Only on Friday Manjhi called Nitish Chanakya of Bihar politics, ‘chalak’ (cleaver) and ‘buddhiman’. It is for the people to draw their own meaning to these expressions.

The restoration of Assembly membership of the four terminated MLAs of the party has posed another big challenge. Though Manjhi welcomed the judgement, only to be flayed by his own parliamentary affairs minister, Shrawan Kumar, three senior ministers, Narendra Singh, Ramai Ram and Brishen Patel felt that it would be suicidal to remove the chief minister now.After the single-bench Patna high court ruling came the statement of the Congress leader and former Speaker of Bihar Assembly, Sadanand Singh, that the merger of the Janata Dal (United) and RJD could take place only after two-thirds MLAs
of both the parties decide in its favour.The leader of the four reinstated MLAs, Gyanendra Singh Gyanu, claimed that the merger can not be possible without them.

The leaders of the largest opposition party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, are gleefully watching the development within the camp of friend-turned-rival, the Janata Dal (United). But then the saffron party has its own quota of problem.True the party is not likely to project any chief ministerial candidate as it did in neighbouring Jharkhand or in other states which went for Assembly election recently. There is no
dearth of those within who oppose the former deputy chief minister Sushil Kumar Modi.

Another problem is that be it prime minister Narendra Modi or Jharkhand chief minister Raghuvar Das, both are from trading community. If SuMo is projected as the chief minister it is likely to be challenged by some upper caste leaders within the party.

But the biggest problem for the BJP is how to tackle Manjhi. If the JD(U) is finding it difficult to handle a Mahadalit CM, the BJP too is finding itself in a bind. While some other party leaders are only attacking Nitish Kumar and have spared Manjhi, the leader of opposition in the Legislative Council, Sushil Kumar Modi, is repeatedly attacking both. He holds Manjhi also responsible for the present state of affairs in Bihar.

But another party leader, Dr C P Thakur, once again on Saturday said that the BJP is there to embrace Manjhi and restore respectability to him and Mahadalits.So if the BJP had no tribal leader left in Jharkhand to make the chief minister––a rare development in 14 years of the state history––in Bihar too it does not have any Mahadalit leader to be projected as the CM candidate, especially after Manjhi. The latter has certainly raised the aspirations of the Scheduled Castes in Bihar.

In comparison to the two former NDA partners––the JD(U) and BJP––the situation is somewhat better in the RJD. The truth is that the party is too small in the Assembly now to fear any further erosion.As Nitish Kumar has been left with little choice the RJD supremo, Lalu Prasad, is dexterously playing his role. With Samajwadi Party leader, Mulayam Singh Yadav, likely to become a sort of samdhi next month, the Yadav duo is likely to have an upper hand within the new party.

Political observers are of the view that the Janata Dal (United) chief Sharad Yadav too is more inclined to the Yadav twin for obvious political reasons. In that case Nitish would be a bit marginalized in the new upcoming party.Interestingly, most of the MLAs, especially of the Janata Dal (United), are keeping their cards close to their chests. They are adopting wait and watch approach.

If the new party emerges as a strong challenger to the BJP and Narendra Modi’s popularity wanes then they would remain in JD(U). If not they may cross over.It needs to be recalled that be it Ram Vilas Paswan, Ram Kripal Yadav or even Upendra Kushwaha joined hands with the BJP only after the parties started releasing the list of candidates for the Lok Sabha election. So none is in hurry in Bihar, except perhaps media, which is always in search of sensational stories.